Formwork Demand Firms as US Housing Rebounds — May 2026 Brief

US housing starts climbed 10.8% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million units, the strongest print since December 2024, per Census Bureau data. The reading is a demand tailwind for structural and formwork panels coming out of Asia. Buyers planning Q3 arrivals should treat May as a positioning window, not a defensive one.

The US Commerce Department's preliminary anti-dumping case has dominated trade headlines this spring, but the petition targets hardwood and decorative plywood used in cabinet and interior applications. Film-faced plywood for concrete formwork sits in a separate HS heading and is not in scope. Structural and form-ply flows out of Vietnam to the US continue uninterrupted. Phenolic-bonded products like Pro Form are outside the petition.

Single-family starts ran 9.7% above February at 1.032 million units. Multi-family added 446,000 in buildings of five units or more.

Price snapshot

Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 lumber traded at $490 per thousand board feet in early April, a 4% gain on the prior month, per Madison's Lumber Reporter quotes carried by NAHB. Lumber futures eased later in the month and slipped to $564 per thousand board feet on April 28, a seven-week low according to Trading Economics. Two prints, one weekly cash and one end-of-month futures, sit in a tight band that suggests the market is digesting the housing surprise rather than pricing it in.

The FRED Producer Price Index for plywood (WPU083) is still tracking near 2025 lows. Indexbox flagged plywood and ply form down 8.5% over the trailing three months. That puts current levels marginally under year-ago marks.

Supply: China holds, Indonesia steady

China's full-year 2025 plywood exports reached a record 13.27 million m³ worth $5.27 billion, per Global Wood Markets Info citing Chinese customs data. Volume rose 24% year-on-year, but value gained only 9%. The dollar-per-cubic-metre gap is doing real work: Chinese mills are absorbing margin pressure and pushing harder on Asian and Middle Eastern destinations now that EU and US doors are partially closed. China still accounts for roughly 52% of global plywood production, a share our March industry statistics roundup tracked in detail.

Indonesia's plywood export volume hit 925,054 m³ in Q1 2025 worth $441.5 million, a 2.3% volume gain year-on-year, per the Indonesian Wood Panel Association. Apkindo expects 2026 to deliver about 4% volume growth. Certified raw-material supply is the main bottleneck.

Vietnam's full-year 2025 wood and forest-product exports topped $17 billion. Plywood alone accounted for $3.84 billion. Q1 2026 customs data has not yet been published, though mill-side feedback suggests Korea and Australia are the strongest order books this spring.

Demand: India and the US lead

India is the other story worth watching alongside the US. The country's plywood market reached INR 247.85 billion in 2025, with construction driving about 69% of demand, per Market Research Future. Forecasters at IMARC and Grand View Research peg 2026-2034 growth at roughly 5.0 to 5.2% CAGR. Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana housing build-out and modular construction adoption are the main pull.

NAHB and Fastmarkets had pencilled in roughly 1.50 million 2026 housing starts for the full year, an 8 to 9% gain on 2025. The March print landed almost exactly on that pace.

From a Vietnamese mill perspective, the AD/CVD coverage has been the louder story than housing all spring. The housing print quietly tells the more durable tale for Q3 form-ply buyers.

Trade and policy

The Commerce Department issued affirmative preliminary AD determinations on hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam on February 25. Preliminary AD rates landed at 187.27% for China, 19.98 to 84.94% for Indonesia, and 196.14% for Vietnam, on top of preliminary CVD rates of 4.37 to 26.75% for Vietnam, 2.40 to 128.66% for Indonesia, and 81.34% for China. Final determinations are scheduled for mid-July 2026 for Vietnam and Indonesia, and mid-May to July for China. The ITC final-phase hearing opens July 16.

Scope matters more than the headline percentages. The case targets the hardwood and decorative grades used in cabinet and interior work. It does not cover film-faced plywood for concrete formwork. Structural sheathing and industrial packaging panels are also outside the case. Buyers sourcing those products who have been calling Vietnamese mills since the preliminary rates landed have the same answer: their orders are not in scope.

In Brussels, the European Commission's April 30 deadline to propose EUDR simplification has just passed. Mayer Brown's compliance brief tracks an expected legislative proposal aimed at downstream operators, with the December 30, 2026 enforcement date for medium and large operators still on the books. Micro and small operators have until June 30, 2027.

Container freight gives the trade story its third leg. Drewry's World Container Index slipped 1% to $2,216 per 40-foot box for the week of April 30, the third straight weekly decline. Asia-Europe spot rates dropped 6% the week prior, with Shanghai-Genoa down 8% to $3,071 per FEU. Vietnam-to-US-West-Coast 40-foot rates are running $1,800 to $3,500 depending on carrier and timing, per current Freightos and SeaRates quotes. Container costs are not the headline this month.

Outlook

Three forces are pulling at the May to July window. The US housing rebound is running ahead of NAHB's full-year pace. The hardwood AD case is rerouting decorative volumes away from US ports while structural and film-faced flows continue. And freight is finally softening, which should keep landed costs from running away.

For sourcing managers planning Q3 arrivals out of Vietnam, the working assumption should be firmer FOB pricing on form-ply as Asian mills tighten capacity around their non-US business. Ocean rates look steady. Buyers waiting for the July ITC ruling before placing orders for cabinet-grade panels should weigh the post-decision rebound risk; structural and form-ply buyers face no such delay reason.

About Vinawood

Since 1992, Vinawood has manufactured film-faced and formwork plywood in Hanoi and Bac Ninh, shipping to 55+ markets. The Pro Form range carries CE marking and FSC chain-of-custody certification, with EPA TSCA Title VI compliance for US-bound orders. Film-faced and structural panels remain outside the current US hardwood AD petition. For Q3 sourcing inquiries, contact the team at vinawoodltd.com.