Freight Rates Climb Early as Asian Plywood Demand Holds Firm

Ocean freight is moving first this year. Asia–Europe container rates began climbing in mid-May, weeks ahead of a normal peak season, and that single shift is already reshaping how plywood buyers think about Q3 arrivals. The Drewry World Container Index rose 6% to $2,712 per 40ft box in the week to 21 May, lifted mostly by the Asia-to-Europe leg as importers front-load orders around Red Sea diversions and Strait of Hormuz risk.

For anyone sourcing formwork or structural panels out of Vietnam, the message is simple. The cheap-freight window that held through March and April is closing.

Freight and price snapshot

Spot rates out of Asia are no longer drifting. Freightos pegged Asia–North Europe at roughly $2,800 per FEU and Asia–Mediterranean near $3,600 per FEU in its 19 May read, with the Mediterranean leg up 3% on the week while North Europe slipped 2%. Carriers want more. CMA CGM set new FAK levels from 1 June at around $4,700 per FEU to North Europe, and MSC and others have floated June increases aiming to add close to $2,000 per FEU over current rates.

Lumber tells a quieter story. CME futures slid to a seven-week low of $564 per thousand board feet on 28 April, then recovered to near $600 through May as the North American building season picked up, per Trading Economics. That is well below the January highs above $600 and a sign that raw-material cost pressure on panel producers has eased rather than spiked.

Supply and production

Output is rising at the top of the supply chain. China, the world’s largest plywood producer, posted a sharp increase in timber output through early 2026 according to ITTO trade reporting, keeping veneer and panel feedstock plentiful across the region. Vietnamese mills are buying more raw logs too. National pine-log imports reached about 239,700 cubic metres in Q1, up 19% year on year by volume, with tali log volumes also higher — a restocking pattern that usually points to mills expecting firmer order books later in the year.

Plentiful supply and softer lumber together explain why panel quotes have stayed broadly stable rather than climbing. The cost story for the next quarter is freight, not fibre.

Demand: Asia firm, Europe patchy

Vietnam’s export data captures the split cleanly. Wood and wood-product exports held at $4.0 billion in Q1 2026, up 1% on the year, with March alone reaching $1.4 billion, the Viet Nam Customs Department reported via ITTO. Shipments to China jumped 47% to $608 million, Japan rose 6% to $539.6 million, and the EU climbed 48% to $217.7 million. The United States stayed the single largest destination at $1.96 billion but fell 8%.

Japan is the market to watch. Indonesia held its place as Japan’s top plywood supplier at 596,000 cubic metres in 2025, yet demand there remains soft and a weak yen has pushed some Japanese importers into negative margins on coated formwork plywood, per ITTO. Korean demand from Vietnam also cooled. The Asian growth is real, but it is not uniform.

Europe is the slower engine. EU construction output is forecast to return to growth of about 1.5% in 2026 after a flat 2025, the ING analysis notes, while the ifo Institute expects German housing completions to fall again to roughly 185,000 units this year from 205,000 in 2025 before any recovery. Formwork demand tracks concrete pours, so a delayed German rebound keeps a lid on one of Europe’s biggest panel markets for now.

Trade and policy

The US anti-dumping case continues to define risk for hardwood and decorative plywood specifically. Commerce set preliminary antidumping margins in late February of 196.14% on Vietnam, 187.27% on China, and 19.98% to 84.94% on Indonesia, with cash deposits collected from 2 March and final Vietnam determinations scheduled for mid-July. That scope covers cabinet and furniture-grade decorative panels. Concrete-forming products such as film-faced and structural formwork plywood sit outside the decorative-plywood scope, which is why Vietnamese formwork shipments to other regions have held up while US-bound decorative volumes thin out.

We read the June FAK hikes as an opening bid rather than a settled rate, but anyone staging Q3 formwork arrivals should still budget as if part of that increase sticks.

Outlook

Freightos expects Asia–Europe demand to keep building into July as European importers compress their ordering ahead of the October Golden Week cutoff. If carriers hold capacity discipline through blanked sailings, the announced June increases have a better chance of landing. Lumber should stay range-bound near $600 per MBF absent a demand surprise, and ample Chinese and Vietnamese supply should keep panel pricing stable into Q3. The variable that actually moves a delivered cost right now is the box, not the board.

For buyers, firm Asian demand plus rising freight argues for confirming Q3 formwork orders sooner rather than waiting for a freight pullback that the early peak season may not deliver.

About Vinawood

Vinawood is a Vietnamese plywood manufacturer established in 1992, shipping more than 5,000 containers a year to 55+ countries. Our formwork range covers Pro Form film-faced panels and the wider film-faced plywood collection, produced through a 12-step process with 100% individual sheet inspection and carries CE (EN13986), EPA TSCA Title VI, FSC-COC, and PEFC certification for major export markets. For the prior edition of this series, see our previous market brief. To discuss Q3 formwork supply, request a quote through vinawoodltd.com.